'Probably' doesn't mean the same thing to your AI as it does to you When a human says an event is "probable" or "likely," people generally have a shared, if fuzzy, understanding of what that means. But when an AI chatbot like ChatGPT uses the same word, it's not assessing the odds the way we do, my colleagues and I found. We recently published a study in the journal NPJ Complexity that suggests that, while large language model AIs excel at conversation, they often fail to align with humans when communicating uncertainty . The research focused on words of estimative probability, which include terms like "maybe," "probably" and "almost certain." By comparing how AI models and humans map these words to numerical percentages, we uncovered significant gaps between humans and large language models.

Predictions from machine learning algorithms can vary across random seeds, inducing instability in downstream debiased machine learning estimators. We formalize random seed stability via a concentration condition and prove that subbagging guarantees stability for any bounded-outcome regression algorithm. We introduce a new cross-fitting procedure, adaptive cross-bagging, which simultaneously eliminates seed dependence from both nuisance estimation and sample splitting in debiased machine learning. Numerical experiments confirm that the method achieves the targeted level of stability whereas alternatives do not. Our method incurs a small computational penalty relative to standard practice whereas alternative methods incur large penalties.

This study presents a conditional flow matching framework for solving physics-constrained Bayesian inverse problems. In this setting, samples from the joint distribution of inferred variables and measurements are assumed available, while explicit evaluation of the prior and likelihood densities is not required. We derive a simple and self-contained formulation of both the unconditional and conditional flow matching algorithms, tailored specifically to inverse problems. In the conditional setting, a neural network is trained to learn the velocity field of a probability flow ordinary differential equation that transports samples from a chosen source distribution directly to the posterior distribution conditioned on observed measurements. This black-box formulation accommodates nonlinear, high-dimensional, and potentially non-differentiable forward models without restrictive assumptions on the noise model. We further analyze the behavior of the learned velocity field in the regime of finite training data. Under mild architectural assumptions, we show that overtraining can induce degenerate behavior in the generated conditional distributions, including variance collapse and a phenomenon termed selective memorization, wherein generated samples concentrate around training data points associated with similar observations. A simplified theoretical analysis explains this behavior, and numerical experiments confirm it in practice. We demonstrate that standard early-stopping criteria based on monitoring test loss effectively mitigate such degeneracy. The proposed method is evaluated on several physics-based inverse problems. We investigate the impact of different choices of source distributions, including Gaussian and data-informed priors. Across these examples, conditional flow matching accurately captures complex, multimodal posterior distributions while maintaining computational efficiency.

Damped sinusoidal oscillations are widely observed in many physical systems, and their analysis provides access to underlying physical properties. However, parameter estimation becomes difficult when the signal decays rapidly, multiple components are superposed, and observational noise is present. In this study, we develop an autoencoder-based method that uses the latent space to estimate the frequency, phase, decay time, and amplitude of each component in noisy multi-component damped sinusoidal signals. We investigate multi-component cases under Gaussian-distribution training and further examine the effect of the training-data distribution through comparisons between Gaussian and uniform training. The performance is evaluated through waveform reconstruction and parameter-estimation accuracy. We find that the proposed method can estimate the parameters with high accuracy even in challenging setups, such as those involving a subdominant component or nearly opposite-phase components, while remaining reasonably robust when the training distribution is less informative. This demonstrates its potential as a tool for analyzing short-duration, noisy signals.

Supervised machine learning describes the practice of fitting a parameterized model to labeled input-output data. Supervised machine learning methods have demonstrated promise in learning efficient surrogate models that can (partially) replace expensive high-fidelity models, making many-query analyses, such as optimization, uncertainty quantification, and inference, tractable. However, when training data must be obtained through the evaluation of an expensive model or experiment, the amount of training data that can be obtained is often limited, which can make learned surrogate models unreliable. However, in many engineering and scientific settings, cheaper \emph{low-fidelity} models may be available, for example arising from simplified physics modeling or coarse grids. These models may be used to generate additional low-fidelity training data. The goal of \emph{multifidelity} machine learning is to use both high- and low-fidelity training data to learn a surrogate model which is cheaper to evaluate than the high-fidelity model, but more accurate than any available low-fidelity model. This work proposes a new multifidelity training approach for Gaussian process regression which uses low-fidelity data to define additional features that augment the input space of the learned model. The approach unites desirable properties from two separate classes of existing multifidelity GPR approaches, cokriging and autoregressive estimators. Numerical experiments on several test problems demonstrate both increased predictive accuracy and reduced computational cost relative to the state of the art.

Unfortunately, the notion is seriously flawed on two counts [8]. First, it doesn't ensure fairness.

Neural networks are central to modern artificial intelligence, yet their training remains highly sensitive to data contamination. Standard neural classifiers are trained by minimizing the categorical cross-entropy loss, corresponding to maximum likelihood estimation under a multinomial model. While statistically efficient under ideal conditions, this approach is highly vulnerable to contaminated observations including label noises corrupting supervision in the output space, and adversarial perturbations inducing worst-case deviations in the input space. In this paper, we propose a unified and statistically grounded framework for robust neural classification that addresses both forms of contamination within a single learning objective. We formulate neural network training as a minimum-divergence estimation problem and introduce rSDNet, a robust learning algorithm based on the general class of $S$-divergences. The resulting training objective inherits robustness properties from classical statistical estimation, automatically down-weighting aberrant observations through model probabilities. We establish essential population-level properties of rSDNet, including Fisher consistency, classification calibration implying Bayes optimality, and robustness guarantees under uniform label noise and infinitesimal feature contamination. Experiments on three benchmark image classification datasets show that rSDNet improves robustness to label corruption and adversarial attacks while maintaining competitive accuracy on clean data, Our results highlight minimum-divergence learning as a principled and effective framework for robust neural classification under heterogeneous data contamination.

Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have significantly advanced image synthesis, however, the synthesis quality drops significantly given a limited amount of training data. To improve the data efficiency of GAN training, prior work typically employs data augmentation to mitigate the overfitting of the discriminator yet still learn the discriminator with a bi-classification ($\textit{i.e.}$, real $\textit{vs.}$

The iterations of many first-order algorithms, when applied to minimizing common regularized regression functions, often resemble neural network layers with pre-specified weights. This observation has prompted the development of learning-based approaches that purport to replace these iterations with enhanced surrogates forged as DNN models from available training data. For example, important NP-hard sparse estimation problems have recently benefitted from this genre of upgrade, with simple feedforward or recurrent networks ousting proximal gradient-based iterations. Analogously, this paper demonstrates that more powerful Bayesian algorithms for promoting sparsity, which rely on complex multi-loop majorization-minimization techniques, mirror the structure of more sophisticated long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, or alternative gated feedback networks previously designed for sequence prediction. As part of this development, we examine the parallels between latent variable trajectories operating across multiple time-scales during optimization, and the activations within deep network structures designed to adaptively model such characteristic sequences. The resulting insights lead to a novel sparse estimation system that, when granted training data, can estimate optimal solutions efficiently in regimes where other algorithms fail, including practical direction-of-arrival (DOA) and 3D geometry recovery problems. The underlying principles we expose are also suggestive of a learning process for a richer class of multi-loop algorithms in other domains.

In this paper we consider the problem of minimizing a submodular function from training data. Submodular functions can be efficiently minimized and are consequently heavily applied in machine learning. There are many cases, however, in which we do not know the function we aim to optimize, but rather have access to training data that is used to learn the function. In this paper we consider the question of whether submodular functions can be minimized in such cases. We show that even learnable submodular functions cannot be minimized within any non-trivial approximation when given access to polynomially-many samples. Specifically, we show that there is a class of submodular functions with range in [0, 1] such that, despite being PAC-learnable and minimizable in polynomial-time, no algorithm can obtain an approximation strictly better than 1/2 o(1) using polynomially-many samples drawn from any distribution. Furthermore, we show that this bound is tight using a trivial algorithm that obtains an approximation of 1/2.